1 Game Profile

1.1 Estimated Outcomes on BGG

This table displays the selected game’s current values on four BGG outcomes (UsersRated, Average, GeekRating, Weight) along with my predictive model(s) estimated values for where these games are likely to end up.

Published	ID	Name	Type	UserRatings	Average	GeekRating	Weight
2021	264227	Ghostbusters x Men in Black: Ecto-terrestrial Invasion	Current	46	6.51	5.52	0.00
			Estimated	100	7.20	5.59	2.42

To see more information about the game on boardgamegeek, click on the game’s ID or Name to go straight to the game’s profile page.

1.2 Game Description

Description
Men In Black/Ghostbuster: Ecto-terrestrial Invasion is a miniatures games that pairs the world's foremost protection teams to take down a threat like they've never faced. The Ghostbusters team includes Peter Venkman, Egon Spangler, Ray Stanz, and Winston Zeddmore, and the MIB team includes Agent J, Agent K, Agent L, and Zed. The game features fast dice-rolling and take-that card play as well as detailed miniatures from Hector “Hec” Moran (Street Fighter The Miniatures Game). —description from the publisher

1.3 Game Information

Information on the game’s designers, artists, families, mechanics and categories from BGG.

For the full profile of the selected game, click on the links in the table or go to https://boardgamegeek.com/boardgame/264227

1.4 Explaining Predictions

For each of the predictions above, I used models that were trained on historical boardgamegeek data in order to predict the selected game. How did the model(s) arrive at their predictions? The following plot displays Shapley values to indicate what features were most influential for the model’s predictions. Anything in blue increased the model’s predictions, anything in red decreased the model’s predictions.

2 Finding Similar Games

What games are similar to Ghostbusters x Men in Black: Ecto-terrestrial Invasion? I compare the selected game to every other game on boardgamegeek based on its mechanics, playing time, complexity, and game type. The tables below display the games which had the most similar data to Ghostbusters x Men in Black: Ecto-terrestrial Invasion. The reported similarity is the cosine similarity between the selected game and all other games published before 2021.

This similarity score ranges from -1 to 1, where similarity of 1 indicates that games are exactly identical (a game will have a score of 1 with itself).

Note: This analysis does not look at a game’s ratings on BGG, publisher, artist, or designer - it focuses on finding similar games based on how they play, not how they are rated or by their theme.

2.1 Most Similar Games

The table below displays games with the most similar data to Ghostbusters x Men in Black: Ecto-terrestrial Invasion. Click on a game’s ID or Name to go straight to its profile on boardgamegeek.

Rank	Published	ID	Name	Similarity	GeekRating	Average	Weight	UserRatings
--	2021	264227	Ghostbusters x Men in Black: Ecto-terrestrial Invasion	1.00	5.52	6.51	2.42	46
1	2004	11161	Dungeoneer: Den of the Wererats	0.82	5.66	6.30	2.11	485
2	2017	232166	Frostgrave: Ghost Archipelago	0.81	5.56	8.05	2.67	58
3	2005	14709	Gangs of Mega-City One	0.78	5.53	7.32	2.60	42
4	2010	68251	Loot and Scoot	0.77	5.52	5.85	1.33	78
5	2016	207653	Warhammer 40,000: Kill Team	0.76	5.55	6.95		62
6	2003	8207	Dungeoneer: Vault of the Fiends	0.76	5.82	6.30	2.23	1,301
7	1998	11357	Brewhouse Bash	0.75	5.52	6.26	1.55	62
8	2019	285902	Riot Quest: Single-Player Starter Set	0.75	5.53	7.51	2.00	38
9	2007	27970	Star Wars PocketModel TCG	0.73	5.54	5.80	1.62	473
10	2004	10811	Piraten, Planken & Peseten	0.73	5.50	5.37	1.57	52
11	1991	5369	Hordes of the Things	0.73	5.72	7.31	2.49	260
12	2011	114684	Villages	0.73	5.64	6.54	1.64	370
13	2013	137958	Wild West Exodus	0.72	5.56	7.76	3.00	57
14	2011	101786	Dust Tactics: Revised Core Set	0.72	5.83	7.33	2.53	460
15	2014	161126	Dust Tactics	0.72	5.54	7.20	3.00	44
16	2015	178517	Black Ops: Tactical Espionage Wargaming	0.72	5.52	6.66	2.50	36
17	2016	204397	Warhammer Age of Sigmar: Storm of Sigmar	0.71	5.53	6.97	2.50	40
18	2016	193696	Rogue Stars: Skirmish Wargaming in a Science Fiction Underworld	0.71	5.55	7.06	3.00	69
19	2017	208170	Stellar Armada	0.71	5.50	5.70	1.00	64
20	2017	187273	The Dresden Files Cooperative Card Game	0.71	6.21	7.05	2.19	1,691
21	2018	254157	Last Days: Zombie Apocalypse	0.71	5.55	7.76	2.00	49
22	2010	69120	Cadwallon: City of Thieves	0.70	5.84	6.27	2.32	1,698
23	2016	206540	Banana Bandits	0.70	5.47	5.35	1.71	223
24	2014	170568	Krosmaster: Arena – Duel Pack 2	0.69	5.55	7.11	1.00	61
25	2015	187590	Pralaya	0.69	5.58	7.10	1.25	98

Click on the ID or Name for any game to go its profile page on boardgamegeek.

2.2 Most Similar, Highly Rated Games

What games are similar to Ghostbusters x Men in Black: Ecto-terrestrial Invasion while also being highly rated by the boardgamegeek community? In this table I multiply every neighboring game’s similarity score by its GeekRating. The resulting score is an attempt to balance these two quantities.

Rank	Published	ID	Name	Score	Similarity	GeekRating	Average	Weight	UserRatings
--	2021	264227	Ghostbusters x Men in Black: Ecto-terrestrial Invasion	5.52	1.00	5.52	6.51	2.42	46
1	2004	11161	Dungeoneer: Den of the Wererats	4.64	0.82	5.66	6.30	2.11	485
2	2017	235488	Istanbul: The Dice Game	4.57	0.69	6.63	7.17	1.75	3,868
3	2017	232166	Frostgrave: Ghost Archipelago	4.48	0.81	5.56	8.05	2.67	58
4	2017	187273	The Dresden Files Cooperative Card Game	4.42	0.71	6.21	7.05	2.19	1,691
5	2003	8207	Dungeoneer: Vault of the Fiends	4.41	0.76	5.82	6.30	2.23	1,301
6	2019	274638	Unmatched: Robin Hood vs. Bigfoot	4.34	0.63	6.90	8.08	1.94	2,293
7	2005	14709	Gangs of Mega-City One	4.31	0.78	5.53	7.32	2.60	42
8	1989	2163	Space Hulk	4.27	0.63	6.77	7.48	2.50	3,731
9	2016	207653	Warhammer 40,000: Kill Team	4.22	0.76	5.55	6.95		62
10	2010	68251	Loot and Scoot	4.22	0.77	5.52	5.85	1.33	78
11	2009	56931	Arena: Roma II	4.21	0.67	6.25	6.88	1.93	2,086
12	2011	101786	Dust Tactics: Revised Core Set	4.20	0.72	5.83	7.33	2.53	460
13	1991	5369	Hordes of the Things	4.16	0.73	5.72	7.31	2.49	260
14	2019	232595	Skulk Hollow	4.14	0.65	6.32	7.37	2.26	1,465
15	1998	11357	Brewhouse Bash	4.13	0.75	5.52	6.26	1.55	62
16	2019	285902	Riot Quest: Single-Player Starter Set	4.13	0.75	5.53	7.51	2.00	38
17	2011	98315	The Adventurers: The Pyramid of Horus	4.12	0.67	6.17	6.80	1.75	2,016
18	2010	69120	Cadwallon: City of Thieves	4.11	0.70	5.84	6.27	2.32	1,698
19	2020	284777	Unmatched: Jurassic Park – InGen vs Raptors	4.10	0.62	6.60	8.23	1.88	1,270
20	2011	114684	Villages	4.09	0.73	5.64	6.54	1.64	370
21	2020	325635	Unmatched: Little Red Riding Hood vs. Beowulf	4.08	0.63	6.48	8.39	1.82	1,001
22	2007	27970	Star Wars PocketModel TCG	4.04	0.73	5.54	5.80	1.62	473
23	2013	137958	Wild West Exodus	4.02	0.72	5.56	7.76	3.00	57
24	2004	10811	Piraten, Planken & Peseten	4.00	0.73	5.50	5.37	1.57	52
25	2014	161126	Dust Tactics	3.97	0.72	5.54	7.20	3.00	44

2.3 Why Are Games Considered Similar?

I first ran a dimension reduction method (PCA) to identify the main points of variation for games on BGG. The first 25 components explained roughly 50% of the overall variation in the dataset, so I computed the cosine similarity between every game’s score on these 25 components.

2.3.1 Plotting All Games

The following plot shows every game on BGG plotted on the first two principal components of variation. I then highlight where the selected game and its nearest neighbors fall on these first two components.

2.3.2 Game Profiles

Similarity scores are based on 25 principal components - the next table displays the selected game and its neighbors profiles on each of these components.

2.3.3 Examining Components

What are these components? The following plot shows which features contribute the most to each component.

Published	ID	Name	Publisher(s)	Designer(s)	Artist(s)	Categories	Families	Mechanics
2021	264227	Ghostbusters x Men in Black: Ecto-terrestrial Invasion	IDW Games	Jonathan Phillips-Bradford	Jose David Lanza Cebrian	Card Game	Admin: Better Description Needed!	Action Points
			Panda Cult Games LLC		Chris Fenoglio	Dice	Creatures: Ghosts	Semi-Cooperative Game
					Derek Laufman	Miniatures	Movies: Ghostbusters	Take That
					Jack Lawrence		Theme: Chibis

Individual Game Analysis